Well what the bondos gaveth in September, they tooketh away in October. Oil shorts took a bunch more. Last couple of days, though, a little bit of reality may be creeping in? Hope so. Anyway, I’m in it to win it here. Got some serious delta on, and even more serious gamma.
Repeating from last month: In any event, no reason to change my scenario view. So I’m just waiting for some event which will pry the market out of the cold, dead hands of the robots.
| Measure | October | YTD | Inception | Annualized |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Performance | (10.1)% | (7.7)% | 35.8% | 8.3% |
| Relative Performance (vs. FMAGX) | (5.0)% | (27.9)% | 64.2% | 13.8% |
| Relative Performance (vs. HSGFX) | (10.1)% | (12.9)% | 31.7% | 7.4% |
| Relative Performance (vs. Fed) | N/A | (10.1)% | 23.7% | 5.7% |
Relative performance is based on a relative return fund, FMAGX, an absolute return fund, HSGFX, and, newly added, “the Fed,” CPI-U price inflation as driven by public enemy number one, the Federal Reserve. Inception refers to reporting on the blog, and is based on the close of 2005.
10/31 portfolio.
| Asset class | % Allocated | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Food & Agriculture | 0 | |
| Energy | 2.01 | Short oil via SCO calls. |
| Financial Services Shares | 4.42 | FAZ calls (a bearish position) |
| Market Timing – Bear | 10.0 | TZA calls, SDS |
| Market Timing – Bull | 0.0 | |
| Metals & Mining | 0 | |
| Infrastructure | 0 | |
| Fixed Income & Currency | 82.42 | TLT, WHOSX, Canada 5.75s of 2029 |
| Cash | 1.0 | Cash, essentially all FDIC-insured. |
Financial Reality 