Complacency

Gradual meltup, all achieved overnight in the futures markets, seems to have led to a belief that there is no risk anymore. VIX is at 19. Are we going to see 15, which is about as low as it ever gets?

I think this is the calm before the storm. The markets are trading in desultory fashion, as if everyone is waiting for something to happen. There’s no real energy on either the bull or the bear side, so markets just drift higher. Mutual fund cash is at record low levels and has been for some time, and besides retail investors have been liquidating. Therefore it pretty much has to be institutional accumulation.

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