Black Swan?

Was Sandy the black swan which capped the Fed-induced asset rally?

Looks like Rosie thinks so:

So the surprise for Q4? A negative GDP print. The next question is whether there will be a Q1 rebound. Remember, as I mentioned yesterday, three of the major four ingredients to the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) recession all peaked in tandem in July. And it would be a slam-dunk four if the service sector had already followed goods-producing payrolls on the road to perdition.

Apropos of my previous post, there was a puff piece on Bloomberg (doing everything it can to boost Obama, Keynesianism and the nanny state) lauding Bernanke as the expert on the Great Depression. This is moronic for two reasons. First of all, there are no clues to success in the history of the Great Depression. Everything that was tried, failed. Until WWII – largely caused by the Depression – put a bookend on the episode. Secondly – that was then, this is now. Everything is different. Even if the Great Depression had been corrected by policy actions, it is doubtful that those same actions would be effective today in a globalized world. Fuggedaboutit.

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