The End Of Empire

I’ve mentioned that the changes underway mark the end of the U.S. empire. The World Bank provides some data that quantifies this end game:

According to the World Bank, the U.S. represented 31.8% of the world’s economic activity in 2001. By the end of 2011, that share had dropped to 21.6%, meaning America’s slice of the world economy is 32% smaller than it was a decade ago, and getting smaller every day.

Projecting ten years from now, based on the last ten year (2001-2011) rates of change, the U.S. will be less than 15% of the world economy (and China more than 25%). Ol’ Wernher nicht so dumm, ja? (Aber ein bißchen früh)(obscure Tom Lehrer song)

And by the way, an update from ECRI.

So, with about a month to go before year-end, what do the hard data tell us about where we are in the business cycle? Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. This is because, in retrospect, three of those four coincident indicators – the broad measures of production, income, employment and sales – saw their high points in July (vertical red line in chart), with only employment still rising.

Watching Gallup, employment is now falling.

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