He’s Back

Achuthan: Recession began in mid-2012.

“I think that a recession began around the middle of last year. The reason I think that is because number one, the stall speed and GDI last year, and also when you look at the weakness in the indicators that define a recession — output and income and sales — initial jobless claims are not used to define recession. You actually use overall employment payroll or household employment, and there, if you simply look at year-over-year growth rates, what you see is they are falling. Right now on the Bloomberg I think the consensus is 160-170 for tomorrow. Even if that is true, you are going to see year-over-year payroll jobs growth go to a 16-month low. It’s going the wrong direction. The headlines say jobs are improving but they are actually going down.”

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