Surprise!

Citibank’s economic surprise index:

Surprise Index

Compares incoming data vs. expectations. H/T Mish.

Of course, there are the expectations – the IMF said yesterday that “the fund’s World Economic Outlook now estimates only a 0.1 per cent probability of global recession in 2014, compared with a 6 per cent chance last October, with similarly reduced risks for 2015.”

Most of the IMF’s forecasts were little changed, with expectations of stronger growth in the US, the UK and Germany boosting the outlook.

Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF, said: “I think the recovery is strongest in the US in that, for the most part, the brakes are gone. People can borrow at low rates and the fiscal consolidation is now fairly slow . . . In a way it is pulling the world.”

Citibank’s chart graphically says what I would; “Good luck with that.”

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