Jeremy Grantham proposed a little while ago that the stock market bubble would go as high as 2200 on the S&P before collapsing. I must admit I thought that an exaggeration at the time, but it is looking more and more plausible. Low volume/no volume levitation over the summer – 2200 is only 13% away – followed by a 1929-like October crash?
The 1929 recession started in March, it was subsequently realized, but markets ignored the data for a long time. Pretty much the same now – the first quarter GDP was negative, no matter what the cause, the housing market, always sine qua non of real economic growth, has turned south, real wages are declining, etc.
The propaganda flow is concealing a pretty sad reality even before you take into account the weakness in the rest of the world, to say nothing of huge bubbles in other countries.