PMI Nonsense

The financial propaganda machine is running full bore, asserting that the 57.5 Markit flash PMI confirms a 3.0% GDP growth rate for the second quarter. Bosh. Let us just recall the Markit PMI numbers year to date:

Month (2014) Markit PMI Flash
January 53.7
February 56.7
March 55.5
April 55.4
May 56.4
June 57.5

A little grade school arithmetic will quickly show that the average Markit flash PMI for Q1 2014 was 55.3, followed by 56.4 for Q2.

We already have seen Q1 at -1.0% and the consensus for the next revision, due Wednesday, is that it will show -1.8%. Do you see a 5% swing in growth in the PMI? – by the way, Markit also admitted that exports were “flat.” I don’t.

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  • By Subtlety | Financial Reality on June 28, 2014 at 4:32 pm

    […] measures. And we know sentiment is strong – that’s why we are here. Those measures, as I showed a little while ago, were misleading in first quarter and there is much reason to believe that they are misleading […]

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