This weekend is the much-awaited meeting of oil producers in Doha, supposedly to hash out an agreement which would freeze production. Such an agreement is doubtful, given the budget pressures on the big guns like Russia and Saudi Arabia, who need all the money they can get. But even if it should happen, the world is still awash in oil in inventory and overproduction will continue. And, of course, higher prices will simply bring North American shut-in production back on stream.

None of this is stopping markets from dreaming of sugar plums, but a return to fundamentals seems likely in the not too distant future.

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