Jackson Hole

Janet Yellen’s speech today provided no new information, although there was a kneejerk spike in financial markets, now largely reversed.

It continues to be obvious that Ms Yellen has no connection with the real world and that lack of connection pretty much guarantees a new financial crisis that will devastate the world.

Markets may not yield perfect outcomes, but the outcomes are the result of the combined intelligence and knowledge of the participants. The “expert” system is hopelessly vulnerable to error resulting from the shared misapprehensions, prejudices and blindnesses of one or a few individuals.

For a little humor, here is the 70% confidence interval of Fed’s interest rate projections.
ff forecast

And, BTW, I’ll take the under.

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