Trumpeting Inflation?

The bond market is, at least superficially, reacting to the election of Mr Trump as if he was going to succeed in creating inflation where all others had failed.

Not very likely. It has been tried. The program of printing money to spend on infrastructure has resulted in nearly every flat surface in Japan being covered in concrete or asphalt, to say nothing of enormous bridges to nowhere and other follies. But no inflation.

The smart money knows this. My personal suspicion is this is a ruse to drive retail investors out of bond funds into the stock market, while the boyz take the other side of the trade. This supposition is supported by the trading in cheap stocks, particularly in the Russell 2000, an index with an undefined P/E.

Oil, the second most important price (labor is #1) in the real economy is tanking (literally). The dollar is soaring as the yuan (-0.9% to a record low today) and euro (-1.1%) fall, obviously also deflationary. This will not end well.

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