Recession

In my view, it is highly likely that the US economy has already entered a recession. I’m using ECRI’s definition of recession:

A recession is a self-reinforcing downturn in economic activity, when a drop in spending leads to cutbacks in production and thus jobs, triggering a loss of income that spreads across the country and from industry to industry, hurting sales and in turn feeding back into a further drop in production – in effect a vicious cycle.

The big question is what happens to inflation. And that largely depends on the Fed. The government will continue on its path of reckless spending, that is a given. Anything that might buy votes from the naive and foolish. The question is whether or not the Fed will return to its habit of monetizing the spending or not. Since the Fed does not understand the reasons for its inability to control inflation or employment, it could do anything. One can only wait and see,