Category Archives: Commodities

Crude Remarks

WTI crude is down sharply today after an EIA report that showed substantial increases in inventories of both products and crude itself. Inventories remain well above historical ranges, close to or at record levels.

US production has been increasing steadily and a slowing economy appears to be sapping end-user demand. However, one presumes that most if not all domestic producers have taken advantage of crude’s prolonged OPEC-supported trading in the $50 range to sell their output forward, either in the futures market or by private contract. So for the time being they are more or less indifferent to the market price.

The question is, who is holding the bag for all that $50 crude – obliged to buy at that price or just looking at tanks of the stuff. When do they decide to liquidate their positions before $40 crude becomes $30 and then $20?

No Joy In Mudville

Well the employment report this morning was a big miss to expectations on all fronts. The household report showed a net loss of jobs, and overall the quality of jobs declined as part-time, minimum wage jobs replaced full-time. However, the VIX sellers strode in to pump up stocks, leaving Treasuries as the main beneficiary of the report, with the 30-year yielding 2.86% as I write. TRIN at 2.03 shows that while the VIX sellers hold up the mega-caps, there’s a lot of distribution going on.

Oil is trading weak, in the low 47s. Wages disappointed as the employment mix changed unfavorably, even though shortages of skilled workers are widespread.


Tipping Point

I think we’re close. Very close. Oil gave up the 50s again today, down about 4.5% as I write. Could be a tell. How about this:

Still, dip-buyers as enthusiastic as ever. It works until it doesn’t, then folks get trampled in the rush for the exits. Markets are making no sense because of massive government intervention. Markets are a voting mechanism, but government doesn’t like the results so it suppresses them.

Consumer Prices

Everybody has a bias when it comes to measuring price inflation. Reports like the Devonshire one come out quite frequently, usually complaining that the government indexes understate inflation. They all say, well the numbers don’t reflect reality. The problem is, they don’t know what reality is any more than the government does. My reality and the next person’s are completely different because we buy different things. Cheap loans have allowed universities to raise prices in an outrageous fashion – but our kids have long since graduated so it doesn’t affect me, although anyone putting kids through college is being eviscerated. Consumers react to prices. Technology changes. Quality changes. Fashions change. And so on. All these things make any index pretty much useless, except for making political arguments. So one has to ask, in the famous words of Ms. Clinton – “What difference does it make?”

If you ask someone in Venezuela right now, of course, you would get an expletive for an answer. There is massive consumer price inflation because there are not enough consumer goods to meet demand, and so people are going hungry and without toilet paper. They are driving up prices, trying to outbid one another to compete for what little supply there is. But even in that desperate situation, there is no agreement on what consumer prices actually are, even by disinterested parties. The only way to fix the problem in Venezuela is to get goods back on the shelves. If the Venezuelan government can do that, then consumer prices will reflect the value of the bolivar and general world price levels.

There’s your clue. If you want to measure consumer prices, it is easy. Just use the Big Mac, as the Economist does. It works. 2016 USA Big Mac price inflation was 2.6%. Venezuela Big Mac prices in bolivars:

July 2014: 75

December 2014: 245

July 2015: 485

December 2015: 940

December 2016: 3550

Looks like a pretty decent metric. It tells you what you need to know – there’s a big problem.

But the economy does not run on Big Macs, and I’m interested in the inputs, not the outputs so much. And those are labor and energy. Nothing else much matters.

The End Of Volatility?

This morning, the VIX has a 9 handle. The stock market has gone 8 days without a move of more than 0.2%. Buffett, Grantham and others are arguing that this time really is different. In fact, they agree that the market has reached a permanently high plateau, although they do not dare us those words. Who are these people and what have they done with Warren Buffett and Jeremy Grantham?

Of course it is different. It is always different. History never repeats itself. In the first four months of 2017, according to Bank of America, central banks – mostly the ECB and BoJ – purchased more than $1 trillion in securities, a record rate. So of course that means blue skies forever.

And that blue sky is full of tree-tops. As the Chinese proverb goes, this too will pass. That massive liquidity pumping is not benign, it is a symptom of panic as economies refuse to respond to the therapy the bankers prescribe.

As John Hussman observes, these signs and portents are a call to lace up the gloves, not hang them up. Extended periods of low volatility and excessive bullishness are always followed by the converse. Commodities and trade are quietly collapsing, GDP barely has a heartbeat and subprime defaults are rising, especially in cards and autos, pension funds are struggling, valuations are beyond extreme.

Beware the gathering storm.


I’m holding to my opinion that CADUSD will see 0.65 before 1.00, and here’s a little confirmation bias.

I’m Yelling Timber! CAD’s Going Down!

In addition to the collapse of the housing bubble, commodity prices, especially energy, are going to take a hit. And that could be right now – it looks like the oil longs – the hedgies – are already getting nervous about OPEC’s ability and/or willingness to sacrifice their cash flows in order to bolster the oil price.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The boyz pulled out all the stops today, including a spectacular VIX slam, to squeeze the shorts. This travesty of a market responded as usual. However, what is unusual and interesting is that crude oil is not participating in the bullish euphoria. At least so far today, 3pm, it has extended yesterday’s losses as OPEC jawboning has failed to generate any enthusiasm.

Inventories continue to set new records as OPEC production cuts are offset by weaker demand from a slowing economy. My suspicion is that it will be a  serious sell-off in crude that triggers the next major stock market decline.


There is much noise that the Fed will raise interest rates to combat “inflation.”

Over the last year to the end of February, wages are up 2.8% (nominal). The price of oil, as a metric for energy prices, is up 32%.

Guess what is driving “inflation.”

The Saudis are still pumping as hard as they can, but justifying it on the grounds that they are storing the above-quota output, not selling it internationally. It seems to me that a tank in Saudi and a tank in Oklahoma are pretty much fungible, except that we at least think we know how much is in the Oklahoma tanks.

The bottom line is that global inventories of oil are continuing to expand to new records, more or less on a daily basis. The EIA is forecasting that US shale is set to expand production by 109k barrels from March to April, rising from 4.853mmbpd to 4.962mmbpd, and offsetting OPEC’s entire February production cut.

At some point we are going to see a reaction and that will be the end of “inflation.” For a while, anyway.

Crude Dreams

It seems like the price of crude oil is finally taking notice of the new records in inventories being set every week.

OPEC is ruminating about further cuts. The problem, for OPEC anyway, is that keeping the price high has fed a resurgence in US production as the rig count keeps driving higher and higher. A resurgence that will not easily be countered as the high prices have allowed producers to sell forward the oil that they have yet to produce either into the public futures market, or by private contract. Either way, they can drill with confidence in the pricing.

As a result, the global re-balancing of the oil markets that OPEC hoped to achieve remains a fantasy. GLWT.

As a side note, speculators’ most recently reported positions in WTI crude oil futures total about 525 million bbl., or nearly $27 billion at the current price of $51.

Pension Tsunami Sighted

NY Teamsters Pension Fund becomes first to run out of money.

Oh, and after the close the API announced that crude and product inventories continue to set new records. Not to worry, speculative buying continues. GLWT.