Category Archives: Stocks

The End Of Volatility?

This morning, the VIX has a 9 handle. The stock market has gone 8 days without a move of more than 0.2%. Buffett, Grantham and others are arguing that this time really is different. In fact, they agree that the market has reached a permanently high plateau, although they do not dare us those words. Who are these people and what have they done with Warren Buffett and Jeremy Grantham?

Of course it is different. It is always different. History never repeats itself. In the first four months of 2017, according to Bank of America, central banks – mostly the ECB and BoJ – purchased more than $1 trillion in securities, a record rate. So of course that means blue skies forever.

And that blue sky is full of tree-tops. As the Chinese proverb goes, this too will pass. That massive liquidity pumping is not benign, it is a symptom of panic as economies refuse to respond to the therapy the bankers prescribe.

As John Hussman observes, these signs and portents are a call to lace up the gloves, not hang them up. Extended periods of low volatility and excessive bullishness are always followed by the converse. Commodities and trade are quietly collapsing, GDP barely has a heartbeat and subprime defaults are rising, especially in cards and autos, pension funds are struggling, valuations are beyond extreme.

Beware the gathering storm.

Nothing Really Matters

Ooh yeah, ooh yeah
Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters nothing really matters to me

Anyway the wind blows

— Freddy Mercury, Bohemian Rhapsody

Source: zero hedge, of course.

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

The boyz pulled out all the stops today, including a spectacular VIX slam, to squeeze the shorts. This travesty of a market responded as usual. However, what is unusual and interesting is that crude oil is not participating in the bullish euphoria. At least so far today, 3pm, it has extended yesterday’s losses as OPEC jawboning has failed to generate any enthusiasm.

Inventories continue to set new records as OPEC production cuts are offset by weaker demand from a slowing economy. My suspicion is that it will be a  serious sell-off in crude that triggers the next major stock market decline.

Blood In The Sand

The Atlanta Fed forecast for Q1 GDP now stands at 0.5% annualized, in other words not statistically different from zero or even small negative numbers.

Treasuries and equivalents are reacting accordingly, but in stocks it is the same old thing – any attempt to sell down is met with VIX slams and all manner of manipulation to preserve the status quo. Needless to say, this is just building up pressure as the prudent exit stage left, leaving the wild-eyed bulls snorting center stage while the matador sharpens his swords in the wings.

It is not so much that the bulls feel lucky,  but that they are being cozened into a feeling of security by the matador’s assistants.

One Picture

Short Memories

Consumer Confidence was reported this morning to have risen sharply, to the highest since December 2000. Stocks rose and bonds fell, taking this news as a sign of economic strength, one presumes. Obviously the buyers do not remember what happened in 2001. when the market fell to a loss of 27% by September.

Oh, and by the way, there is essentially no historical correlation between changes in the reported Consumer Confidence and changes in actual retail spending. Just sayin’

Everything Is Awesome

Apparently CNBC showed this after last Thursday’s close. Just sayin’.

Something Is Going To Snap

Snapchat is trading this morning at a $40 billion valuation. In 2016 revenue was $404 million, and it lost $514.6 million. User growth slowed from 17 percent in Q2 2016 to 3.2 percent in Q4.

There is only one word that applies – mania.

Take A Memo

John Hussman this morning tweeted “Just time-stamping this chart for future generations”
spx2306

Amen.

This one needs to be saved, as well.

maxpl

Manipulation

Yesterday, the API reported a huge build in crude oil inventories. This morning, the EIA confirmed it. After a couple of minutes hesitation, the algos took over and marched crude up – and turned the Nasdaq and S&P green at the same time. As they have consistently as inventories have built.

MAnipulation has become completely obvious and shameless as the SEC’s so-called supervision turns a blind eye – could it be, perhaps? so that the SEC folks can discreetly become “compliance officers” with no work and large paychecks when they leave.