Category Archives: Stocks

Short Memories

Consumer Confidence was reported this morning to have risen sharply, to the highest since December 2000. Stocks rose and bonds fell, taking this news as a sign of economic strength, one presumes. Obviously the buyers do not remember what happened in 2001. when the market fell to a loss of 27% by September.

Oh, and by the way, there is essentially no historical correlation between changes in the reported Consumer Confidence and changes in actual retail spending. Just sayin’

Everything Is Awesome

Apparently CNBC showed this after last Thursday’s close. Just sayin’.

Something Is Going To Snap

Snapchat is trading this morning at a $40 billion valuation. In 2016 revenue was $404 million, and it lost $514.6 million. User growth slowed from 17 percent in Q2 2016 to 3.2 percent in Q4.

There is only one word that applies – mania.

Take A Memo

John Hussman this morning tweeted “Just time-stamping this chart for future generations”
spx2306

Amen.

This one needs to be saved, as well.

maxpl

Manipulation

Yesterday, the API reported a huge build in crude oil inventories. This morning, the EIA confirmed it. After a couple of minutes hesitation, the algos took over and marched crude up – and turned the Nasdaq and S&P green at the same time. As they have consistently as inventories have built.

MAnipulation has become completely obvious and shameless as the SEC’s so-called supervision turns a blind eye – could it be, perhaps? so that the SEC folks can discreetly become “compliance officers” with no work and large paychecks when they leave.

Extrema

Speculative positions (in futures contracts, speculators must self-identify) are at historical extremes. Crude is the same, I didn’t find such a nice chart is all.

everyone

Edit: Found a crude oil chart.
wti-cot

Charts are from zero hedge.

Unbalanced

So let’s see. Janet Yellen, at least as of yesterday, sees three or more interest rate increases in 2017 and wants the dollar higher. The Trump team, reportedly, will seek large cuts to government spending.

So… tighter monetary policy + tighter fiscal policy + unfavorable export pricing = market euphoria? Sorry, that equation doesn’t make sense.

Twin Peaks

Low Unemployment Good For The Market?

cyrmr0_weai5w7c

Divergent

The US stock market takes the road less traveled:

20161130_eod16_0

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

Apologies to Robert Frost; thanks to zero hedge.