TV Gold

Magazine covers are often mentioned as contrarian clues. The idea is that by the time something makes the cover of a magazine such as Business Week, notorious for its “Death Of Equities” cover that immediately preceded a generational bull market, it is old news indeed.

I propose that media have changed, and so we should look elsewhere for such clues. The peak in the real estate market was accompanied by a wave of “reality” television programs featuring flippers, homebuyers, developers and all forms of real estate pond scum. There is another wave of television series playing now, featuring gold miners. Largely populated by novices looking for a quick solution to financial difficulties, these programs worship the yellow metal. Considering that gold bugs long for the day when gold is “discovered” by the retail herd, driving up prices to the stratosphere, is it worth thinking that these programs may offer a clue that gold has already been discovered? And that the charts showing a slow decline don’t lie?

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